*contains graphic material

this is where I speak my brains about content / media / research / data

Month: December, 2009

Lebedev to buy Indy: erm … why?

Alexander Lebedev obviously likes taking a punt. He took over the London Evening Standard and surprised everyone by turning it into a freesheet. Initially this move has had some success, with the Standard now unopposed in the evening London freesheet market with the awful London Lite and londonpaper having disappeared. Casual observation suggests the Standard is doing well with readers too, with my commute to Canary Wharf showing lots of wealthy banker-types tucking the Standard into their satchels ever evening.

So why on earth would Lebedev want to buy the Independent (the ginger-haired stepchild of the UK national newspaper market)? Even if he can make the precarious economics of a quality freesheet work with the Standard, surely turning the Independent and Sunday Independent into a freesheet as well will threaten that by giving him the competition the Standard has so luckily avoided. Perhaps he wants to opt for distribution solely through retail outlets and avoid crossing over with the Standard’s transport contracts; a weekend freesheet distributed through retailers would be an entirely new offering for the market and therefore could be an option.

If he’s not planning to go free, then he must either know something we don’t or he has a fetish for losing money. Last year Independent News & Media (INM) lost £140m last year. struggled to repay a £179m bond, and was forced to move into new offices at Daily Mail’s headquarters in West London (the floor below the Evening Standard in fact). In the most recent ABCs the Indy sold 186,557 copies, down more than 7% on last year. Tiny circulation and big % declines are bad enough, but when you consider that only half of those copies were sold at full rate, this is a newspaper in all sorts of trouble.

The management don’t seem to be helping much either. CEO Gavin O’Reilly made the claim that INM would break even in 2 years, which even his biggest fan would say is a bit optimistic … almost sounds like the boast of a man not expecting to be around in 2 years’ time to find out. A speech he gave at the World Newspaper Congress a couple of weeks ago was similarly deluded, where he flailed lamely at Google for the newspaper industry’s problems – read the full thing here.

If Lebedev is really thinking of sticking his hand in his pocket (which he most likely isn’t – there’s been leaks before about this deal, but nothing happened), I’d refer him to Warren Buffett’s advice:

“For most newspapers in the United states, we would not buy them at any price,” he said in response to a question about whether he would consider investing in newspapers. “They have the possibility of going to just unending losses.”

paywalls: why market research is useless

What % of consumers would pay for news content?

graphic from paidContent that speaks volumes.

It’s a collation of various pieces of consumer research on paywalls, showing various responses to the question: ‘what % of consumers would pay for news content online?’. The answers range from 5% to 48%!

Looking at it closely, I’d suggest losing the studies that don’t narrowly define the content in question as news content, since clearly people are far more likely to pay for, say, video of an exclusive sports event.

I’d also lose the studies that confuse the issue by asking about various different mechanics of payment (i.e. ‘Would you pay with a subscription? What about micropayments?’ etc) and just focus on the core issue of pay vs free.

If you do that, you’re left with just 2 of the original 8 studies … 5% and 48%!

Of course, paywalls are something that’s been informally tossed about at my place of work, as it has no doubt done at every publisher in the UK (although our CEO has been very clear it’s not being seriously considered).

I had a conversation internally at one point about whether to survey our consumers on the subject of paywalls, and we almost immediately rejected the idea as a total waste of time, since the answers given wouldn’t in any way reflect what would happen in reality. I’m reminded of surveys asking drivers if they’d pay a toll on a road they use. Almost every driver says ‘no way, I’ll just drive another route’. Then they build the toll booths anyway and, amazingly enough, all those drivers just pay the tolls.

Nobody puts their hand up and asks for a shit sandwich! Paywalls can only be tested in-market. I believe Rupert Murdoch realises this, which is why he evidently made the call early without stopping to ask anyone’s opinion. I think that’s the right way to approach this – go with your gut (even if it’s wrong).

great post on newspaper economics

This is probably the best economically-literate account I’ve yet read of the historic problems facing newspaper publishers. It’s from a blogger called Robert Heath and I’d encourage you to read the full post here.

To quote, with important bits in bold:

Historically, the market structure of the newspaper business enjoyed a virtuous circle as depicted above. Once the sunk cost of the editorial staff is incurred, the printing press paid for, and the distribution system in place (collectively representing yesterday’s technology), the incremental cost of including an additional classified ad — or any other feature — in the daily newspaper is negligible. Hence, newspapers had incentives to bundle many forms of content in addition to their own editorial content: TV listings, horoscopes, movie schedules, stock listings, comic strips, classified ads, etc. A reader paid for the bundled product even if he used the classified ads maybe once a year, or never read the horoscope or used the TV listings. The high fixed costs, offset by the surplus economics from bundling and low marginal distribution costs gave rise to something akin to a natural monopoly…

Now imagine you’re a newspaper subscriber (maybe you still are). If you could disaggregate the horoscopes from the weather from the sports from the local news from the international news from the business news from the TV listings from the almost non-existent stock price listings, how much would you pay for the parts of the paper you actually intend to read? Probably less than the $10-$15 per week it currently costs at the newsstand. Probably less than the $6-8 per week it costs to subscribe.

Probably a lot less.

This is the problem faced by the newspapers. Bundling is a pricing strategy that delivers surplus economics to the supplier by enticing customers to buy more than they would if the bundled products were sold separately. By weight, the majority of your local newspaper (and its website) is information sourced from third parties (ads, stock listings, classifieds, lightly edited excerpts of corporate news releases, etc.) readily available elsewhere on the internet (see note 2). By allowing readers to disaggregate the newspaper’s traditional bundle of content, the internet may be exposing the market value … of the original editorial content produced by the publisher itself.

As publishers experiment with revamped online pricing models they may find that the true value of their original content will give horrifying meaning to the term micro-payment. No newspaper has a monopoly on “the news”. It certainly has no monopoly on the third-party information it republishes. The newspaper industry suffers from a notion that it should enjoy monopoly economics on content (“Hey, that’s copyrighted!”) when in reality its historical monopoly was a distribution channel and much of the profit was based on aggregating and organizing other people’s content. In the internet age, that distribution monopoly no longer exists and others, like Google, do a pretty good job of aggregating third-party content.

So, in summary, newspapers had a monopoly (or with the national press in the UK, a near monopoly) on distribution. Printing presses are very expensive and thus out of the reach of most. They exploited this monopoly by bundling content and charging a higher price for it. So my daily newspaper today has 68 pages – I could never read the whole thing in a day even if I wanted to. It has news, sport, classified ads, obituaries, letters, TV listings and lots of other stuff, all in a big bundle. Even if I wanted to read only 2 pages I am still forced to pay for the remaining 66 pages due to a distribution monopoly that means I can’t get the information anywhere else. And that’s how the newspaper industry used to make its money – by selling a bundled package to a wide variety of consumers (and then selling this bundled advertising package to a wide variety of advertisers).

Couple of things I take from this:

1. A lot of the publishing industry’s claims about the ‘value’ of their copyright is just hot air, based on a fallacy. The newspaper industry’s version of this story is that 1) they make intrinsically valuable content, and (2) the internet is destroying this value because Google and others are giving it away for free (sometimes in the face of copyright). What the analysis above shows is that the content was never that valuable in the first place, it was the distribution monopoly and the bundling economics that produced the value. And that’s now been destroyed by the internet. So what we are now seeing is the transparent ‘true’ value of content. And, disappointingly for the publishing industry, the true value lies somewhere between ‘not very much’ and ‘nothing whatsoever’.

2. Micropayments = a Whole World of Pain. Micropayments are the current fashionable idea in the UK for structuring a paywall. But losing the advantage of bundling economics means consumers only pay for those parts of newspapers they actually value. Here’s an interesting exercise: ask a newspaper executive which of their content producers would make a profit if they were considered as independent P&L centres. Which journalists could set up as independent businesses and sell what they do to consumers/advertisers for profit? Which photographers? Which subeditors?!? Tell them that’s what they’re facing with micropayments – every one of these guys needs to be responsible for generating profit. Then watch them break out in a cold sweat.

In the UK sense, it’s guys like these that *might* be OK – the Jeremy Clarksons and Charlie Brookers of the world (in fact, all columnists who already sell their content for profit in book form). But there would be a really, really, extremely long tail of journalists and content producers with absolutely no chance of paying their way. Depressing huh?

key things publishers need to understand about Google part 2

The last couple of days has seen a number of new stories in the belaboured News Corp vs Google debate, ever since the search giant modified their first click-free policy for subscription sites. Here’s a couple more things newspaper publishers don’t seem to understand about Google

1. Google gives you sales leads. As succinctly put by Josh Cohen from Google News in this morning’s Guardian:

“Each new click, each visit, each page view, each reader they get, represents a business opportunity,” Cohen said. “Think of it as a lead, whether you are a broker or a newspaper you want those people coming to the front door, you want to be able to get the opportunity to sell something new: whether that’s a subscription or that’s an advertisement, it’s a real opportunity. In any business you want as many leads as possible.”

As Cohen said, every person Google delivers to news sites represents an opportunity to monetise that traffic through either advertising or paywalls. Publishers should want that traffic, the same as any web startup selling something online desperately wants as much as traffic as possible – it’s the storefront. Failure to monetise traffic is down to the publisher and their business model, no-one else.

2. SEO is not the enemy. Yesterday, Matt Kelly from the Daily Mirror (my employer) was speaking about how the Mirror’s strategy is to develop sites that

“perform well for humans, not search engines … If that means It means putting journalism first, and SEO second, then, as a journalist, I welcome that.”

First of all, who do you think use search engines? Humans, that’s who. Lots of them, in fact – approximately 80% of all journeys on the internet begin with a search. So the goal is to create sites that perform well for humans AND (humans who use) search engines – there is no contradiction here. A well-optimised sites is engaging and useful for users,as well as being easy for them to find – what’s not to like?

Search engines are today’s newsagents. They distribute your content and display it for the users who go there. You need to have a well-optimised site that looks good in Google the same way that newspapers need a standout front page with a great picture and headline to grab people’s attention when they’re buying a bag of crisps. Good, simple, easy to understand tabloid newspaper values.

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